Brian's drawing board. Usually cluttered with whatever happens to be on his mind.

Theme by nostrich. Modified by Brian.

11th July 2011

Post with 5 notes

TdF 2011: Most Dangerous in Past Decade

The comments on cyclocosm.com's most recent post Has the 2011 Tour de France Really Been More Dangerous? got me thinking and then searching. I looked through previous stages of the Tour de France at the riders that abandoned and tried to figure out why. Mainly I was hoping to find out if Cosmo’s claims were indeed true, while perhaps his method was flawed.

First off, I’ve only gone back through the last decade (2003 was tough to figure out). I’ve only gone through the first 9 stages. I’ll acknowledge that different years have different types of stages during the first 9 but … in the end, 9 days racing is 9 days racing, and a crash is a crash whether its on the mountains or in a bunch sprint. I’ve only tried to figure out the reason for abandonment rather than the number of crashes or the number of riders involved (that would require much more exhaustive research) plus this allows us to compare the number of riders abandoning the race due to injuries sustained in crashes hopefully providing a useful metric for dangerous crashes, rather than just the stages that are most crash prone.

*If you have any information beyond what I was able to find, feel free to link it in the comments, where I just list ‘withdrawal’ is where there is the most uncertainty.

2011 (198 starters, 18 withdrawals, 15 due to crashes)

  1. Jurgen Van De Walle (Stage 4) crash
  2. Christophe Kern (Stage 5) tendinitis
  3. Janez Brajkovic (Stage 5) crash
  4. Ivan Murillo Velasco (Stage 6) crash
  5. Vasili Kiryienko (Stage 6) outside time limit
  6. Tom Boonen (Stage 7) crash
  7. Bradley Wiggins (Stage 7) crash
  8. Remi Pauriel (Stage 7) crash
  9. Benat Intxausti Elorriaga (Stage 8) crash
  10. Cristopher Horner (Stage 8) crash
  11. Alexander Vinokourov (Stage 9) crash
  12. Jurgen Van Den Broeck (Stage 9) crash
  13. Frederik Willems (Stage 9) crash
  14. Juan Manuel Garate (Stage 9) crash
  15. David Zabriskie (Stage 9) crash
  16. Amets Txurruka (Stage 9) crash
  17. Pavel Brutt (Stage 9) crash
  18. Wout Poels (Stage 9) crash illness

2010 (198 197 starters, 17 Withdrawals, 9 due to crashes)

  1. Xavier Florencio (Prologue) DNS
  2. Mathias Frank (Stage 1) crash
  3. Manuel Antonio Leal Cardoso (Stage 1) crash
  4. Adam Hansen (Stage 2) crash
  5. Mickael Delage (Stage 2) crash
  6. David Le Lay (Stage 3) crash
  7. Frank Schleck (Stage 3) crash
  8. Niki Terpstra (Stage 3) illness*
  9. Christian Vande Velde (Stage 3) crash
  10. Amets Txurruka (Stage 5) crash
  11. Juan Jose Oroz Ugalde (Stage 7) withdrawal
  12. Stijn Vandenbergh (Stage 7) outside time limit
  13. Fabio Felline (Stage 9) withdrawal
  14. Roger Kluge (Stage 9) withdrawal
  15. Vladimir Karpets (Stage 9) withdrawal
  16. Simon Gerrans (Stage 9) crash
  17. Markus Eibegger (Stage 9) withdrawal

*While Niki Terpstra had crashed the ultimate reason for withdrawal was illness

2009 (180 starters, 9 withdrawals, 5 due to crashes)

  1. Jurgen Van De Walle (Stage 3) crash
  2. Piet Rooijakkers (Stage 4) crash
  3. Robert Gesink (Stage 6) crash
  4. Joly Sebastien (Stage 7) withdrawal
  5. David Le Lay (Stage 8) crash
  6. Eduardo Gonzalo Ramirez (stage 8) crash
  7. Oscar Pereiro Sio (Stage 8) withdrawal
  8. Koldo Fernandez De Larrea (Stage 8) outside time limit
  9. Danilo Napolitano (Stage 9) outside time limit

2008 (180 starters, 10 withdrawals, 4 due to crash)

  1. Herve Duclos-Lassalle (Stage 1) crash
  2. Angel Gomez (Stage 3) crash
  3. Juan Mauricio Soler (Stage 5) crash
  4. Aurelien Passeron (Stage 6) crash
  5. Lilian Jegou (Stage 7) time cut
  6. Christophe Moreau (Stage 7) time cut
  7. John Gadret (Stage 7) time cut
  8. Mauro Facci (Stage 7) time cut
  9. Magnus Backstedt (Stage 7) outside time limit
  10. Manuel Beltran (Stage 8) doping

2007 (189 starters, 18 withdrawals, 9 due to crash)

  1. Eduardo Gonzalo Ramirez (Stage 1) crash
  2. Tomas Vaitkus (Stage 3) crash
  3. Xabier Zandio (Stage 4) crash
  4. Remy Di Gregorio (Stage 5) crash
  5. Brett Lancaster (Stage 5) illness
  6. Geoffroy Lequatre (stage 6) crash
  7. Ruben Lobato (Stage 7) personal
  8. Oscar Freire (Stage 7) saddle sore
  9. Enrico Degano (Stage 7) crash
  10. Ivan Ramiro Parra (Stage 8) withdrawal
  11. Romain Feillu (Stage 8) withdrawal
  12. Stuart O’Grady (Stage 8) crash
  13. Mark Cavendish (Stage 8) withdrawal
  14. Michael Rogers (Stage 8) crash
  15. Cedric Herve (Stage 8) outside time limit
  16. Danilo Napolitano (Stage 8) outside time limit
  17. Robbie McEwan (Stage 8) outside time limit
  18. Patrik Sinkewitz (Stage 9) crash 

2006 (176 starters, 6 withdrawals, 4 due to crash)

  1. Danilo DiLuca (Stage2) illness
  2. Alejandro Valverde (Stage 3) crash
  3. Fred Rodriguez (Stage 3) crash
  4. Erik Dekker (Stage 3) crash
  5. Fabio Sacchi (Stage 6) illness
  6. Bobby Julich (Stage 7) crash

2005 (189 starters, 14 withdrawals, 8 due to crash)

  1. Constantino Zaballa (Stage 5) crash
  2. Claudio Corioni (Stage 6) knee pain
  3. Alessandro Spezialetti (Stage 7) crash
  4. Steve Zampieri (Stage 7) illness
  5. Serguei Gonchar (Stage 8) withdrawal
  6. Christophe Mengin (Stage 8) crash
  7. Sylvain Calzati (Stage 8) crash
  8. Leon Van Bon (Stage 8) withdrawal
  9. Isaac Galvez (Stage 8) crash
  10. Luciano Pagliarini (Stage 9) withdrawal
  11. Jaan Kirsipuu (Stage 9) withdrawal
  12. Igor Gonzalez de Galdeano (Stage 9) crash
  13. Jose Angel Gomez (Stage 9) crash
  14. David Zabriskie (Stage 9) crash

2004 (188 starters, 16 withdrawals, 10 due to crash)

  1. Nick Gates (Stage 1) crash (outside time limit)
  2. Gian Matteo Fagnini (Stage 2) crash
  3. Marco Velo (Stage 3) crash
  4. Frederic Bessy (Stage 3) crash
  5. Eddy Seigneur (Stage 4) outside time limit (TTT)
  6. Bradley McGee (Stage 5) crash
  7. Maryan Hary (Stage 5) outside time limit
  8. Alessandro Petacchi (Stage 6) crash
  9. Mario Cipollini (Stage 6) crash
  10. Rene Haselbacher (Stage 7) crash
  11. Christophe Brandt (Stage 7) doping
  12. Sven Montgomery (Stage 7) crash
  13. Samuel Dumoulin (Stage 9) crash
  14. Martin Hvastija (Stage 9) doping investigation asked to withdraw
  15. Stefano Casagranda (Stage 9) doping investigation asked to withdraw
  16. Jaan Kirsipuu (Stage 9) withdrawal

2003 (198 starters, 23 withrawals, 6 due to crash)

  1. Marc Lotz (Stage 2) crash
  2. Levi Leipheimer (Stage 2) crash
  3. Angel Vicioso (Stage 6) crash
  4. Fabio Baldato (Stage 6) crash
  5. Jaan Kirsipuu (Stage 7) withdrawal
  6. Jesus Manzano (Stage 7) dehydration
  7. Marco Velo (Stage 7) illness
  8. Alessandro Petacchi (Stage 7) illness
  9. Luis Perez (Stage 7) withdrawal
  10. Michael Rich (Stage 7) knee pain
  11. Olaf Pollack (Stage 7) knee pain
  12. Sven Montgomery (Stage 8) illness
  13. Volodymir Gustov (Stage 8) illness
  14. Aitor Gonzalez (Stage 8) illness
  15. Samuel Sanchez (Stage 8) time cutoff*
  16. Pierre Bourquenoud (Stage 8) withdrawal
  17. Antonio Tauler (Stage 8) withdrawal
  18. Ignacio Gutierrez (Stage 8) illness
  19. Nicola Loda (Stage 8) illness
  20. Eddy Mazzoleni (Stage 9) withdrawal
  21. Lilian Jegou (Stage 9) withdrawal
  22. Jimmy Casper (Stage 9) crash
  23. Stefano Zanini (Stage 9) withdrawal
  24. Andreas Kloden (Stage 9) withdrawal
  25. Angelo Furlan (Stage 9) withdrawal
  26. Joseba Beloki (Stage 9) crash

* Samuel Sanchez was listed with ‘TC’ preceeding his name on the stage 8 results found here, but I wasn’t able to confirm

2002 (189 starters, 7 withdrawals, 5 due to crash)

  1. Tom Steels (Stage 5) illness
  2. Marco Pinotti (Stage 5) crash
  3. Rik Verbrugghe (Stage 6) crash
  4. Alexandr Shefer (Stage 6) crash
  5. Didier Rous (Stage 7) crash
  6. Oscar Freire (Stage 8) crash
  7. Aart Vierhouten (Stage 8) illness

The following shows a decent comparison of how dangerous (in terms of crashes ultimately resulting in riders withdrawing) the first 9 stages have been in the past decade.

  • 2002: 189 starters, 5 withdrawals due to crashes, 2.65% attrition
  • 2003: 198 starters, 6 withdrawals due to crashes, 3.03% attrition
  • 2004: 188 starters, 10 withdrawals due to crashes, 5.32% attrition
  • 2005: 189 starters, 8 withdrawals due to crashes, 4.23% attrition
  • 2006: 176 starters, 4 withdrawals due to crashes, 2.27% attrition
  • 2007: 189 starters, 9 withdrawals due to crashes, 4.76% attrition
  • 2008: 180 starters, 4 withdrawals due to crashes, 2.22% attrition
  • 2009: 180 starters, 5 withdrawals due to crashes, 2.78% attrition
  • 2010: 198 197 starters, 9 withdrawals due to crashes, 4.55% 4.57% attrition
  • 2011: 198 starters, 15 withdrawals due to crashes, 7.58% attrition

Yes, this tour has had a rough start. The only other year in the last decade that even comes close is 2004 with 5.32% of the riders crashing out in the first 9 stages.

Edit: I just realized that for 2010 Xavier Florencio did not start the race and shouldn’t be counted in the starters. I’ve updated the calculations above.

Tagged: Tour de Francecrash2011TdF

()

  1. carlynne-henderson reblogged this from vandalarchitect
  2. epiloges reblogged this from vandalarchitect and added:
    Well I really disliked that blog entry at Cyclocosm. Terrible data and really sad that it was linked from L’ Equipe....
  3. vandalarchitect posted this